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Question 120

Two pupils each estimate the probability that a drawing pin lands point up. One drops the pin 20 times and the other drops it 1000 times. Select all statements that are true about their estimates. Select all that apply.

  1. The estimate from 20 drops is better, because a short experiment has less time to go wrong
  2. The estimate from 1000 drops is likely to be the better oneCorrect answer
  3. Estimates settle closer to the true probability as the number of trials growsCorrect answer
  4. After several drops without a point-up landing, a point-up landing becomes more likely

Explanation

A larger number of trials averages out the swings that a handful of results can produce, so the estimate from 1000 drops is expected to sit closer to the true value than the estimate from 20 drops. The belief that a result becomes due after a run without it is a separate mistake, because each drop is unaffected by the drops before it and nothing about the past raises the chance of the next one.

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Question 120: Two pupils each estimate the probability that a drawing pin… · Statistics and Probability · Questena